PE Returns Sensitivity
Quickly test private-equity deal IRR and MOIC across entry, leverage, operating, exit, and timing assumptions.
The skill is limited to financial calculations and document output, with no malicious external action or disproportionate permission evident. However, it lacks guidance for sensitive deal-data handling, user confirmation, data flow, rollback, result auditability, and attribution within the skill itself, so points are deducted.
The workflow, metrics, and core formulas are broadly consistent, and it asks for inputs first. However, debt amortization, fees, taxes, management rollover, interim cash flows, and attribution mechanics are under-specified, with no skill-specific scripts, tests, or abnormal-input feedback. Static calibration caps this below 10.
The audience, private-equity returns scenarios, and trigger phrases are reasonably clear. Non-fit cases, missing-input boundaries, output constraints, and Chinese-language support are not specified, and Excel-generation capabilities have no dependency guidance in this file, so points are deducted.
The document uses a sensible progression from inputs through base case, sensitivities, scenarios, and output; the repository supplies an Apache-2.0 license and general CI. The skill lacks examples, FAQs, limitation disclosure, versioning, changelog, maintenance ownership, and an update path.
It plausibly covers the core need for IRR, MOIC, sensitivity tables, and scenario analysis. However, there are no reproducible example results or committed workbook template, Excel and conditional-formatting output require additional implementation, and formula coverage is incomplete, limiting directly usable value.
The skill text and repository revision are auditable, while general plugin-validation and secret-scanning workflows provide limited supporting evidence. There are no skill-specific key-path tests, sample outputs, or third-party execution records, so the assessment is primarily static.
- Do not treat generated IRR, MOIC, or sensitivity tables as validated investment conclusions; a qualified reviewer should verify inputs, debt schedules, interim cash flows, fees, taxes, and attribution logic.
- Before using real deal data, add controls for sensitive-data protection, access scope, output auditability, and human confirmation.
- The skill file provides no implementation or test evidence for the Excel workbook and conditional-formatting deliverables; confirm the runtime and delivered format.
What does this skill do, and when should you use it?
Returns Analysis is designed for private-equity deal evaluation and quick IRR/MOIC sensitivity work. It organizes entry valuation, financing, operating assumptions, exit assumptions, and holding period into a returns framework. The workflow produces a base-case return calculation, attribution of key return drivers, two-way sensitivity matrices, and Bull/Base/Bear scenarios. Its stated deliverables are an Excel workbook and a one-page returns summary suitable for an investment committee deck.
Collects or extracts entry EBITDA, entry multiple, enterprise value, net debt, equity check, and transaction fees; structures senior debt, subordinated debt, rates, amortization, total leverage, and equity contribution; captures revenue growth, EBITDA margin trajectory, capex, working-capital changes, and debt paydown; calculates entry EV, equity invested, exit EBITDA, exit EV, net debt at exit, exit equity value, MOIC, IRR, and cash-on-cash returns; attributes returns to EBITDA growth, multiple expansion or contraction, debt paydown, and fee drag; builds two-way sensitivities for entry multiple versus exit multiple, EBITDA growth versus exit multiple, leverage versus exit multiple, and hold period versus exit multiple; displays IRR and MOIC together in sensitivity cells; builds Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios; and specifies an Excel workbook with assumptions, returns calculations, sensitivity tables, and a scenario summary, plus a one-page returns summary.
- A private-equity deal team wants a quick back-of-the-envelope return estimate during initial screening.
- An investment committee team needs to compare IRR and MOIC across entry valuation, exit valuation, leverage, and holding-period assumptions.
- A transaction team is stress-testing a deal for slower EBITDA growth, different debt levels, or exit multiple contraction.
- An investor is assessing deal structure and needs to reflect management rollover, co-investment, transaction expenses, and debt paydown in the equity return.
- A deal lead is preparing an IC exhibit that summarizes Bull, Base, and Bear operating and exit assumptions.
What are this skill's strengths and limitations?
- Covers the core PE return drivers of entry multiple, exit multiple, growth, leverage, and holding period.
- Combines base-case returns, return attribution, four types of two-way sensitivities, and Bull/Base/Bear scenarios.
- Explicitly calls out transaction costs, debt paydown, management rollover, co-investment, interim distributions, and carry as relevant considerations.
- Presents IRR and MOIC together, which fits deal screening and investment committee return exhibits.
- A credible result depends on sufficiently complete entry, financing, operating, and exit inputs.
- The formula guidance is centered on a single exit and notes that interim cash flows require adjustment; detailed treatment of complex distribution waterfalls is not provided.
- Although the output section requests an Excel workbook and conditional formatting, the source does not identify an Excel-generation tool, template, or validation process.
- Tax is identified as potentially material, but detailed modeling for asset deals, stock deals, or a 338(h)(10) election is not supplied.
- The repository states that its outputs are not investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice and require review by a qualified professional.
How do you install this skill?
This skill is part of anthropics/financial-services at plugins/agent-plugins/valuation-reviewer/skills/returns-analysis/SKILL.md. For Cowork, open Settings → Plugins → Add plugin, paste https://github.com/anthropics/financial-services, and choose the relevant agent or vertical from the marketplace list. Alternatively, zip plugins/agent-plugins/valuation-reviewer/ and upload it. The README also documents adding the anthropics/financial-services marketplace in Claude Code; it does not provide a standalone installation command for this specific skill.
How do you use this skill?
After installation, invoke it in a deal-evaluation or stress-testing context with a trigger such as “returns analysis,” “IRR sensitivity,” or “build a MOIC table.” Provide the entry, financing, operating, and exit assumptions, including entry EBITDA, entry and exit multiples, total leverage, revenue growth, exit EBITDA, and hold period. State whether management rollover, co-investment, dividend recaps, interim distributions, transaction fees, or carry are relevant. The documented target output includes a base-case return calculation, IRR/MOIC sensitivity tables, three scenarios, an Excel workbook, and a one-page IC-ready summary.